- Thread starter adolf512
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reason.com/2020/04/22/critics-say-a-pair-of-california-antibody-studies-contain-critical-statistical-errors-that-produced-implausible-results

https://www.aafp.org/afp/2020/0701/p5a.html

You being young and healthy does not mean you will not end up in a resperator and get permanent lung damage.

Chronic cardiovascular disease: 24.6%

Chronic liver-kidney disease: 4.6%

Diabetes: 25.7%

Hypertension: 35.4%

Some risk factor: 75.8%

https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/

Note: a single patient is counted twice or more if they are moved between the ICU and other departments of the hospital and then returning back to ICU again. The statistics given here isn’t adjusted for that.

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@Admin , do you agree we're all going to get coronavirus eventually? If so, what is the point of worrying about lung damage; even if we flatten the curve, won't that still be an issue?

The virus can be beaten but that require governments to know what they are doing which most dont, some countries will mostly avoid getting infections.

Both significantly reduces the probability of you getting infected. Surgical marks offer better protection despite not being air-tight.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31479137

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25637115

Is it legal to sell masks? There are people who are speculating. I want to sell masks too

https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-sellers-hijack-listings-face-masks-coronavirus/

aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/lAyePy/dokument-visar-de-prioriteras-bort-fran-intensivvard

This will inflate our death toll higher and thus we can expect more than 100000 swedes to die when we also consider the fact that other forms of healthcare will be less accessible.

2.5% are infected in Stockholm

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm/

This is 57703 swedes (Stockholm Area, mars 27 to april 3), significantly bigger than the 9,141 confirmed cases (entire country) via ordinary testing, on april 6 the number of officially confirmed in the Stockholm area was 3143. From this we get that the number of infected were about 28.26 times higher than the official number of cases at that time

nyheter24.se/nyheter/inrikes/943192-sa-har-coronaviruset-spridits-i-stockholm-stadsdel-for-stadsdel

In about 18 days (from first of april) we will be able to use this info to calculate a more accurate fatality rate, now instead we have to calculate backwards 18 days and the official numbers have during that time increased by a factor of 4.34 (7527/1734)

death rate = 1.54%

Thus unless dractic actions are taken 100000 swedes are going to die (due to 2/3 of the population being infected, collapsed healthcare system)

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm/

This is 57703 swedes (Stockholm Area, mars 27 to april 3), significantly bigger than the 9,141 confirmed cases (entire country) via ordinary testing, on april 6 the number of officially confirmed in the Stockholm area was 3143. From this we get that the number of infected were about 28.26 times higher than the official number of cases at that time

nyheter24.se/nyheter/inrikes/943192-sa-har-coronaviruset-spridits-i-stockholm-stadsdel-for-stadsdel

In about 18 days (from first of april) we will be able to use this info to calculate a more accurate fatality rate, now instead we have to calculate backwards 18 days and the official numbers have during that time increased by a factor of 4.34 (7527/1734)

death rate = 1.54%

Thus unless dractic actions are taken 100000 swedes are going to die (due to 2/3 of the population being infected, collapsed healthcare system)

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The median incubation period for covid-19 is 5.1 days

annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

There is still large uncertaintly in the number of days from first symptoms to death, the median is 14 days according to the following study

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R

The fatality rate estimate (Sweden) will depend on the average time from infection to death weighted to compensate for exponential growth, the weighted average will be shorter than the median value.

14: 1.06

15: 1.19

16: 1.31

17: 1.47

18: 1.56

19: 1.84

This estimate does not include the time delay from death to death being registered or the fact that some people who dies will never get diagnosed, it also doesn't compensate for the fact that some people who died being infected with sars-cov-2 would have died anyway.

annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

There is still large uncertaintly in the number of days from first symptoms to death, the median is 14 days according to the following study

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R

The fatality rate estimate (Sweden) will depend on the average time from infection to death weighted to compensate for exponential growth, the weighted average will be shorter than the median value.

14: 1.06

15: 1.19

16: 1.31

17: 1.47

18: 1.56

19: 1.84

This estimate does not include the time delay from death to death being registered or the fact that some people who dies will never get diagnosed, it also doesn't compensate for the fact that some people who died being infected with sars-cov-2 would have died anyway.

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There are 3 strategies when it comes to dealing with covid-19

**0.** heavy handed measures to stop the virus without relying on any herd immunity until a vaccine is ready in 1 to 2 years, this makes it possible to limit the death toll to less than 0.3%

**1. **Just flatten the curve to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, 0.75 to 1.5 percent of your population will die

**2. **Just leat the virus spread and overwhelm the healthcare system, 2 to 5 percent of your population will die.

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

The real number can be higher due governments not bothering to diagnose people that are already dead or lower becuase some people who died with covid-19 would have died anyway.

The number of infected people in the stockholm area was about 57703 on mars 31

Thus given the previous estimate we can expect between 577 and 1154 dead in the stockholm area on april 18.

april 12: 528

april 13: 543

april 14: 616 (1.07%)

april 15: 702 (1.22%)

april 16: 795 (1.38%)

april 17: 816 (1.40%)

april 18: 897 (1.55%)

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

https://c19.se/Sweden/Stockholm

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The number of people dying per week has increased 86% above the norm in the stockholm area

https://scb.se/om-scb/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/ovanligt-manga-dog-vecka-14/

Week 14: 584 dead

average: 313 dead/week (stockholm area)

https://c19.se/Sweden/Stockholm

the numer confirmed deaths by Covid during week 14 is 183

This tells us that the real effective death toll is 1.48 times the official death toll

Effective death rate = 2.3%

https://scb.se/om-scb/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/ovanligt-manga-dog-vecka-14/

Week 14: 584 dead

average: 313 dead/week (stockholm area)

https://c19.se/Sweden/Stockholm

the numer confirmed deaths by Covid during week 14 is 183

This tells us that the real effective death toll is 1.48 times the official death toll

Effective death rate = 2.3%

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Of the 712 infected on diamond princess 13 have now died and 7 are in critical condition, 55 in mild condition.

Death rate > 1.82%

This falls somewhere between the earlier estimates (from reported deaths, actual increase of deaths). It is likely that the infected on diamond princess were healthier than average for their age which explain their low death rate.

A danish newspaper claimed that Denmark tested blood samples to see how many were or had be infected

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200408/danish-health-agency-says-400000-could-have-been-infected

Only problem is that the paper referenced doesn't have the 3.5% figure anywhere, the paper only stated that random testing would be done.

Nor can the 3.5% figure be found anywhere else. One individual claimed denmark had found 2.7% to be infected by that cannot be found anywhere either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark

We do get a very low fatality rate using these numbers:

3.5% were infected april 2

that would be 203210 danes

april 19: 355 dead

death rate = 0.17 %

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This figure is for april 12

http://www.mynewsdesk.com/se/kth/pressreleases/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-2996052

april 30: 1406 dead in the stockholm area

fatality rate = 0.59%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

The number of people dead per day have been trending down for some time due to extreme measures to contain the virus.

On august 1 the official number of covid-19 deaths were 151 265

who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200801-covid-19-sitrep-194.pdf?sfvrsn=401287f3_2

The excess deaths from covid-19 between match 1 and august 1 were estimated to 150 541

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761

Worst states are (deaths per million people):

New Jersey 1,839

New York 1,721

Massachusetts 1,413

Connecticut 1,274

Louisiana 1,237

Rhode Island 1,087