Note: a single patient is counted twice or more if they are moved between the ICU and other departments of the hospital and then returning back to ICU again. The statistics given here isn’t adjusted for that.
100000 swedes to die due to government incompetence
The swedish strategy is to rely on natural herd immunity to fight covid-19, this will result in 2/3 of the population contracting it since the R0 of covid 19 is about 2.0
If the mortality rate is 1.5% the death toll will be 100 000
The swedish socialist healthcare system will simply give up on people older than 80 (biological age). People older than 70 with a single organ failure will be ignored, people older than 60 with 2 organ failures will be ignored.
This is 57703 swedes (Stockholm Area, mars 27 to april 3), significantly bigger than the 9,141 confirmed cases (entire country) via ordinary testing, on april 6 the number of officially confirmed in the Stockholm area was 3143. From this we get that the number of infected were about 28.26 times higher than the official number of cases at that time
In about 18 days (from first of april) we will be able to use this info to calculate a more accurate fatality rate, now instead we have to calculate backwards 18 days and the official numbers have during that time increased by a factor of 4.34 (7527/1734)
death rate = 1.54%
Thus unless dractic actions are taken 100000 swedes are going to die (due to 2/3 of the population being infected, collapsed healthcare system)
This estimate does not include the time delay from death to death being registered or the fact that some people who dies will never get diagnosed, it also doesn't compensate for the fact that some people who died being infected with sars-cov-2 would have died anyway.
There are 3 strategies when it comes to dealing with covid-19
0. heavy handed measures to stop the virus without relying on any herd immunity until a vaccine is ready in 1 to 2 years, this makes it possible to limit the death toll to less than 0.3% 1. Just flatten the curve to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, 0.75 to 1.5 percent of your population will die 2. Just leat the virus spread and overwhelm the healthcare system, 2 to 5 percent of your population will die.
Diamond princess comparison
Of the 712 infected on diamond princess 13 have now died and 7 are in critical condition, 55 in mild condition.
Death rate > 1.82%
This falls somewhere between the earlier estimates (from reported deaths, actual increase of deaths). It is likely that the infected on diamond princess were healthier than average for their age which explain their low death rate.