2019 novel coronavirus pandemic

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#39
Intensive care stats from Sweden
You being young and healthy does not mean you will not end up in a resperator and get permanent lung damage.

1586151946925.png


Chronic cardiovascular disease: 24.6%
Chronic liver-kidney disease: 4.6%
Diabetes: 25.7%
Hypertension: 35.4%
Some risk factor: 75.8%

https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/

Note: a single patient is counted twice or more if they are moved between the ICU and other departments of the hospital and then returning back to ICU again. The statistics given here isn’t adjusted for that.
 

Leucosticte

Well-known member
#40
@Admin , do you agree we're all going to get coronavirus eventually? If so, what is the point of worrying about lung damage; even if we flatten the curve, won't that still be an issue?
 

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#41
@Admin , do you agree we're all going to get coronavirus eventually? If so, what is the point of worrying about lung damage; even if we flatten the curve, won't that still be an issue?
Not everyone will get it, about 2/3 of the world population will probably get it resulting in herd immunity. The final death toll will be between 40 and 100 million unless its stopped.

The virus can be beaten but that require governments to know what they are doing which most dont, some countries will mostly avoid getting infections.
 

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#45
The situation in italy might be even worse than reported since a big portion of the dead are never tested for COVID-19

 

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#48
100000 swedes to die due to government incompetence
The swedish strategy is to rely on natural herd immunity to fight covid-19, this will result in 2/3 of the population contracting it since the R0 of covid 19 is about 2.0

If the mortality rate is 1.5% the death toll will be 100 000

 

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#49
The swedish socialist healthcare system will simply give up on people older than 80 (biological age). People older than 70 with a single organ failure will be ignored, people older than 60 with 2 organ failures will be ignored.

aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/lAyePy/dokument-visar-de-prioriteras-bort-fran-intensivvard

This will inflate our death toll higher and thus we can expect more than 100000 swedes to die when we also consider the fact that other forms of healthcare will be less accessible.

 

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#50
2.5% are infected in Stockholm

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm/

This is 57703 swedes (Stockholm Area, mars 27 to april 3), significantly bigger than the 9,141 confirmed cases (entire country) via ordinary testing, on april 6 the number of officially confirmed in the Stockholm area was 3143. From this we get that the number of infected were about 28.26 times higher than the official number of cases at that time

nyheter24.se/nyheter/inrikes/943192-sa-har-coronaviruset-spridits-i-stockholm-stadsdel-for-stadsdel

In about 18 days (from first of april) we will be able to use this info to calculate a more accurate fatality rate, now instead we have to calculate backwards 18 days and the official numbers have during that time increased by a factor of 4.34 (7527/1734)

death rate = 1.54%

Thus unless dractic actions are taken 100000 swedes are going to die (due to 2/3 of the population being infected, collapsed healthcare system)
 
Last edited:

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#51
The median incubation period for covid-19 is 5.1 days

annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported



There is still large uncertaintly in the number of days from first symptoms to death, the median is 14 days according to the following study

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R

The fatality rate estimate (Sweden) will depend on the average time from infection to death weighted to compensate for exponential growth, the weighted average will be shorter than the median value.

14: 1.06
15: 1.19
16: 1.31
17: 1.47
18: 1.56
19: 1.84

This estimate does not include the time delay from death to death being registered or the fact that some people who dies will never get diagnosed, it also doesn't compensate for the fact that some people who died being infected with sars-cov-2 would have died anyway.
 
Last edited:

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#52
There are 3 strategies when it comes to dealing with covid-19

0. heavy handed measures to stop the virus without relying on any herd immunity until a vaccine is ready in 1 to 2 years, this makes it possible to limit the death toll to less than 0.3%
1. Just flatten the curve to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, 0.75 to 1.5 percent of your population will die
2. Just leat the virus spread and overwhelm the healthcare system, 2 to 5 percent of your population will die.
 
Last edited:

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#54
Last edited:

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#55
Last edited:

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#56
Diamond princess comparison
Of the 712 infected on diamond princess 13 have now died and 7 are in critical condition, 55 in mild condition.

Death rate > 1.82%

This falls somewhere between the earlier estimates (from reported deaths, actual increase of deaths). It is likely that the infected on diamond princess were healthier than average for their age which explain their low death rate.
 

Admin

Administrator
Moderator
#57
Did denmark actually do random testing?
A danish newspaper claimed that Denmark tested blood samples to see how many were or had be infected

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200408/danish-health-agency-says-400000-could-have-been-infected

Only problem is that the paper referenced doesn't have the 3.5% figure anywhere, the paper only stated that random testing would be done.

sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999

Nor can the 3.5% figure be found anywhere else. One individual claimed denmark had found 2.7% to be infected by that cannot be found anywhere either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark

We do get a very low fatality rate using these numbers:

3.5% were infected april 2

that would be 203210 danes

april 19: 355 dead

death rate = 0.17 %
 
Last edited:
Top