DM debate with blacksmoke9999

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blacksmoke9999 2:48 AM
Do you actually believe what you said?
It makes me sad
to see hurtyoursel like that
You can be happy, just ignore what the transphobes say
I wish you a good life

vintologi24 3:03 AM
It's not about what transphobes are saying it's about what the studies are showing.

blacksmoke9999 3:07 AM
I saw that study
but that is not how you look at science
it is a gradual build up thing
you test many things
your study only opens a possible avenue of research
banning a widely used medication is premature and careless
ozempic causes in some cases gut paralysis, ketoconazole causes hepatotxicity
aspirin can cause hemorrhage

vintologi24 3:10 AM
Those other medications are irrelevant for this discussion

blacksmoke9999 3:10 AM
while driving a drunk driver can crash into you and you can die
the point is that everything has possible trade off
until confimed

vintologi24 3:11 AM
There doesn't seem to be much of an upside with puberty blockers though.

blacksmoke99993:11 AM
tell that to a trans kid

vintologi24 3:12 AM
Even if they would benefit from it over no treatment at all it would still be worse than full HRT.

blacksmoke9999 3:12 AM
but HRT is irreversible

vintologi243:12 AM
99% go on it anyway so it's largely irrelevant.

blacksmoke9999 3:12 AM
one day doctors will figure out how to shape bones and do gentials transplants all of this will be irrelevant anyways
many things that seem like awful side effects lessen as the medication are improved
the point is to allow time for people to decide instead of life choosing for them
the hand of time only flows one way for us humans
that is why they are used

vintologi24 3:15 AM
Most trans children being given puberty blockers are not being offered full HRT though and they already want to transition.
And if they are given puberty blockers 99% will go on full HRT later anyway with significantly worse outcomes than full HRT right away.
It doesn't even buy time since puberty blockers fail to halt bone masculinization.

blacksmoke9999 3:17 AM
this is just bad risk anaylis
you are optimizing for the best case
doctors are cowards they minimize worst case
the ideal is to optimize for average case

vintologi24 3:18 AM
No i am optimizing for best average outcome.
The 99% is 99 times more important than the 1%

blacksmoke9999 3:19 AM
sure, but you need to understand society will never accept at this point in time something like that.
trans kids are put through the wringer to minimize the case of a lawsuit
like how migrants have to work for many years to come to a 1st world country
they want you to beg

vintologi243:20 AM
Puberty blockers for trans children hasn't exactly been a political hit either.

blacksmoke99993:20 AM
it is a compromise decision

blacksmoke9999 3:20 AM
by the time transphobia disappears better meds will be inveted

vintologi24 3:21 AM
puberty blockers are a bad comprimise.

blacksmoke9999 3:22 AM
unethcial societies with bigots means that bad compromises are made all the time
ask any minority
ever

vintologi24 3:22 AM
It didn't work, trans rights are under attack more than ever.

blacksmoke9999 3:23 AM
The ghouls are going to feed, one this golden fish memoried asses focus in on a new minority they will move on. As long as democracy does not die under a fascist things will be better eventually
or climate change
in other words the bigots want to take a pound of flesh
the ritualistic hazing that all groups go through before they can be given human rights

vintologi24 3:24 AM
Democracy is part of the problem. Most wins for trans rights has been in courts.

blacksmoke9999 3:25 AM
You would not want to live without it
because the problems with dictators is that they rarely do what you want them to do

vintologi24 3:26 AM
Elite rule is probably the way to go despite the risks.

blacksmoke99993:26 AM
No
How can you guarantee
?
That your favoured elite
will be the one in power?
It is incredibly unlikely

vintologi243:27 AM
You have to work towards that.

blacksmoke99993:27 AM
not even a pipe dream

vintologi243:27 AM
Democracy is unstable, all you can do is work towards having something better come after it.

blacksmoke99993:28 AM
All human goverments are unstable
Because we are creatures bearing the lowly stamps of our origins

vintologi243:28 AM
Undemocratic systems can be a lot more stable.

blacksmoke99993:28 AM
evolution did not finish with us
we are too selfish
too greedy
and societies require more empathy

vintologi243:29 AM
Actually empathy can be counter-productive in terms of creating a better society.

blacksmoke9999
3:29 AM
Depends on the type of emapthy

blacksmoke99993:29 AM
we need universal emapthy
to care for strangers

vintologi243:31 AM
Undemocratic systems have a lot higher potential than democracy since with democracy you are limited by the voters which is very inferior to the best you can get with elite rule. We have not seen that potential yet but one way it will emerge.

blacksmoke99993:32 AM
demoacracies minimize the worst case

vintologi243:32 AM
That's not what we need now.

blacksmoke99993:32 AM
because dictaros maximize the worst and best case
so democracies are mediocre

vintologi243:32 AM
Also: Germany was a democracy 1920, how did that end?

blacksmoke99993:33 AM
I am very far left so I would say that it is because rich people would rather sink a country and commit genocide than help poor people, so Hindenburg allied himself with Hitler
Rich people would rather watch the world burn that help the poor
And that flaw
is the reason we cannot have nice things
but do not worry
nature will give us humility in climate change
and we will either sink or swim

vintologi243:36 AM
People make excuses every time democracy ends in disaster.
You cannot halt CO2 emissions effectively without having global undemocratic rule.

blacksmoke99993:37 AM
My point is democracy mediocre now because voters stupid now, but it prevents truly awful stuff, like a safety net. Nature will make sure we learn from our mistakes and voters will be less stupid
Or we will die
China does not care for CO2
and is not a democracy anyways

vintologi243:38 AM
> but it prevents truly awful stuff
That's wrong, the holocaust happened.

blacksmoke99993:38 AM
I think the problems is that you believe there needs to be a good way of human governance
There is not
We are the common bad factor
Whatever system we have we will destroy it
No perfect governance will ever exist until we fix ourselves
And dictators are humans

vintologi243:39 AM
People tend to fall in line as long as the governance is decently competent.

blacksmoke99993:40 AM
But that is a rarity
Unstable
A single point of failure
One day Mx. Competent decides to be an asshole
Oh no!

vintologi243:41 AM
You can get redundancy via elite rule. You can for example have 9 politburo members voting.

blacksmoke99993:42 AM
There is something called Conway's game of life
It is a game where you can create little squares that move around
There are states that although stable
Cannot be evolved
Called gardens of eden
IF you cannot get perfectly nice people into power
and keep them in power
indefintely
sure

vintologi243:43 AM
You don't need it to be perfect right away.

blacksmoke99993:43 AM
But are you sueprman?
There are things that not "evolvable"
That cannot be created by gradual changes
that can only be done in one step or not done at all

vintologi243:44 AM
You cannot draw that conclusion from Conways game of life since Conways game of life is completely deterministic.

blacksmoke99993:44 AM
There is no path to Eden is my paint
point
All the paths would involve you becoming a superhero and forcefully imposing your favourite elite
and if superpowers exists other people are likely to have them
and stop yu
you
How do you get to Eden vintologi24?
Sorry if my longwindedness annoyed you

vintologi243:47 AM
There are multiple potential paths towards great pure elite rule.
Such as by you being very lucky.
Competition between states is likely to favor competent governance.
People who are more competent are more likely to succeed in the private sector.

blacksmoke99993:48 AM
This is very intersting. But alas! I work at night. I will continue tomorrow. Thanks for the conversation. It was good
 

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#2
Why her Conway game of life analogy didn't work
Conways game of life is a completely deterministic in the sense that the next state will always be known given the previous state. That does very significantly limit the future states since it will end up looping back to the initial state eventually without covering all possible configurations.

If you however introduce sufficient randomness all those "garden of eden" states becomes reachable (while also not completely stable).

Since democratic systems are inherently chaotic they will all eventually turn into dictatorships, in most cases that will not end very but if you are lucky enough you end up with elite rule or autocracy than is vastly superior to democracy. There is no avoiding rolling that dice, all you can do is increase the chance of it eventually turning into something good for humanity as a whole.
 

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#3
Debunking: democracy prevents super-bad things from happening
First of all it's wrong to judge democracy based on what a majority think is a great outcome. We have to look at what is actually good for humanity as a whole long term rather than focusing on what makes people feel good for the moment.

Currently for example most people support liberal abortions laws and free access to contraceptives while fertility is well below replacement, this illustrates how people tend to support what makes them comfortable for the moment instead of demanding that people look out for what's actually needed for the future such as raising children.

But some failures under democracy are so bad there really isn't any way to defend it even by the sick standards used by people trying to defend democracy.

The aids outbreak was very much preventable but governments inaction made it a million times worse than it had to be.

The holocaust: 5 to 7 million Jews killed due to hitler getting elected and incompetent democratic leaders failing to stop him in time.

HIV/Aids: 88.4 million [71.3–112.8 million] infected and 42.3 million [35.7–51.1 million] deaths.
 
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#4
there are unstable and broken systems that worked for millennia. Broke and unstable doesnt means it cannot last. Example: indulgence sales and ruler pardon. 1000 years.

Humans adapt to broken situations instead of fixing them. History proves people adapt to law. Law is the king of social sciences for this reason alone.
 
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