**Probabalistic newcomb switch**

The probability exploit (where you select both boxes 49% of the time) can be eliminated via a probabalistic newcomb switch where the probability of the hidden box containing a million dollars will be the same as the probability of you only selecting one box. In that case you want to open just one box 100% of the time since the prediction by the newcomb switch would be determined by the true probability of you actually opening the box. In the real world however you cannot actually find out the real probability and thus instead your goal should be mostly to make sure the newcomb switch will putting 1 million dollars in the hidden box, that might differ from the probability of you actually abstaining from taking the 1000$.

It is worth noting that this isn't just something theoretical, there are a lot of cases where people will make character judgement where you benefit from being trustworthy long term even if backstabbing can give short term benefit.

Let's say you managed to beat the newcomb switch won (risking 1000000$ to gain 1000$) then what do you think would happen the next time you have to face the same scenario?