Vaccines

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#1
In order for it to be worth it to to take a vaccine the following has to be satisfied

side effects < (probability of the vaccine protecting you) * (probability of infection) * (severity of the disease)

The real issue with many vaccines is not side effects but the low expected benefit from taking the vaccine, often its not a particularly common virus or you will be protected by herd immunity (other people being vaccinated) and thus you can get away with not taking the vaccine yourself.
 

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#2
The pfizer covid-19 vaccine
The vaccine was given an emergency use authorization by an FDA panel

17 Yes, 4 No, 1 abstention.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/10...ting-on-the-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine/

The fact that only 17 of 22 voted to approve it is a minor red flag.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/14...ely-get-the-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine/

Hours before the FDA granted emergency use authorization of a Pfizer vaccine, New York state's independent review panel approved the use of the vaccine days before the first shipment is set to arrive, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Friday.

nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-officials-expected-to-unveil-detailed-pfizer-vaccine-distribution-plans-ahead-of-emergency-approval/2775041/

Several people including dr fauci and former presidents (Obama, Goerge W Bush, Bill Clinton) have promised to take the vaccine on camera, these individuals are however all old and thus the expected benefit from the vaccine will be a lot greater than young people, it is also possible (in theory) that they are simply mistaken regarding the vaccine. They may also feel pressured to publictly take the vaccine in order to assure the public that its safe.
 

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#3
Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine
A total of 43,548 participants underwent randomization, of whom 43,448 received injections: 21,720 with BNT162b2 and 21,728 with placebo. There were 8 cases of Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose among participants assigned to receive BNT162b2 and 162 cases among those assigned to placebo; BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19 (95% credible interval, 90.3 to 97.6). Similar vaccine efficacy (generally 90 to 100%) was observed across subgroups defined by age, sex, race, ethnicity, baseline body-mass index, and the presence of coexisting conditions. Among 10 cases of severe Covid-19 with onset after the first dose, 9 occurred in placebo recipients and 1 in a BNT162b2 recipient. The safety profile of BNT162b2 was characterized by short-term, mild-to-moderate pain at the injection site, fatigue, and headache. The incidence of serious adverse events was low and was similar in the vaccine and placebo groups.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

Due to the short duration of the study they were not able to show that the vaccinated group had better outcomes than the placebo group, all hard data we have so far is better for the placebo group but it is assumed that over time the vaccinated group will do better, this however has not yet been properly demonstrated.

Adverse event analyses are provided for all enrolled 43,252 participants, with variable follow-up time after dose 1 (Table S3). More BNT162b2 recipients than placebo recipients reported any adverse event (27% and 12%, respectively) or a related adverse event (21% and 5%). This distribution largely reflects the inclusion of transient reactogenicity events, which were reported as adverse events more commonly by vaccine recipients than by placebo recipients. Sixty-four vaccine recipients (0.3%) and 6 placebo recipients (<0.1%) reported lymphadenopathy. Few participants in either group had severe adverse events, serious adverse events, or adverse events leading to withdrawal from the trial. Four related serious adverse events were reported among BNT162b2 recipients (shoulder injury related to vaccine administration, right axillary lymphadenopathy, paroxysmal ventricular arrhythmia, and right leg paresthesia). Two BNT162b2 recipients died (one from arteriosclerosis, one from cardiac arrest), as did four placebo recipients (two from unknown causes, one from hemorrhagic stroke, and one from myocardial infarction). No deaths were considered by the investigators to be related to the vaccine or placebo. No Covid-19–associated deaths were observed. No stopping rules were met during the reporting period. Safety monitoring will continue for 2 years after administration of the second dose of vaccine.
 

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#4
Covid-19 risk vs vaccine risks
Its hard to get good data regarding the rate of mortality and various complications if for an infection.





https://theconversation.com/why-are-older-people-more-at-risk-of-coronavirus-133770

The stats above is from confirmed cases only. This however is only the death-rate and it does ignore the other complications covid-19 can give you.

If you are a healthy 28 year old then your risk of dying from covid might be 0.01% (probability of infection and death), given the 95% efficacy then for it to be worth taking (if you only care about survival) the risk of dying from the vaccine cannot be higher than 1 in 10000, based on the limited information we have so far this does seem to be the case.

Unfortunatily the sample size and study duration is small for the pfizer study so its not sensitive enough to detect rare additional deaths or side effects.

If you are above 60 then you should probably take the vaccine as soon as possible given how dangerous it would be for you to get infected with covid-19 and how difficult it is to fully protect yourself from it, a mask only offer partial protection when other people are not wearing one.

If you are below 60 you should still probably get the vaccine if you belong to some risk group.
 
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#6
20 of 21 voted in favor of the moderna vaccine
One abstained, nobody voted against the vaccine.

While this is a far better vote result than for the pfizer vaccine it is still a vaccine that hasn't been properly tested yet, no proper FDA approval has been given yet.

Several people who voted yes now were people who voted no for the pfizer vaccine.

One individual want to see it targeted for high-risk group since he wasn't sure the benefit outweigh the risk for all people over 18.
 

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#9
Healthcare workers refuse to get vaccinated
While you shouldn't trust these people too much when it comes to making good decisions it is still a big red flag.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said only 40% of the state’s nursing home workers have gotten shots. North Carolina’s top public health official estimated more than half were refusing the vaccine there.

SavaSeniorCare has offered cash to the 169 long-term care homes in its 20-state network to pay for gift cards, socially distanced parties or other incentives. But so far, data from about a third of its homes shows that 55% of workers have refused the vaccine.
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-vaccine-health-workers-676e03a99badfd5ce3a6cfafe383f6af
 

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#10
23 dead in norway (phizer vaccine)
(Bloomberg) -- Norway said Covid-19 vaccines may be too risky for the very old and terminally ill, the most cautious statement yet from a European health authority as countries assess the real-world side effects of the first shots to gain approval.(Bloomberg)

Norwegian officials said 23 people had died in the country a short time after receiving their first dose of the vaccine. Of those deaths, 13 have been autopsied, with the results suggesting that common side effects may have contributed to severe reactions in frail, elderly people, according to the Norwegian Medicines Agency.

“For those with the most severe frailty, even relatively mild vaccine side effects can have serious consequences,” the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said. “For those who have a very short remaining life span anyway, the benefit of the vaccine may be marginal or irrelevant.”

The recommendation does not mean younger, healthier people should avoid being vaccinated. But it’s an early indication of what to watch as countries begin to issue safety monitoring reports on the vaccines. Emer Cooke, the new head of the European Medicines Agency, has said tracking the safety of Covid vaccines, especially those relying on novel technologies such as messenger RNA, would be one of

Pfizer and BioNTech are working with the Norwegian regulator to investigate the deaths in Norway, Pfizer said in an e-mailed statement. The agency found that “the number of incidents so far is not alarming, and in line with expectations,” Pfizer said.

Allergic reactions have been uncommon so far. In the U.S., authorities reported 21 cases of severe allergic reactions from Dec. 14-23 after administration of about 1.9 million initial doses of the vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE. That’s an incidence of 11.1 cases per million doses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Though both Covid-19 vaccines approved so far in Europe were tested in tens of thousands of people -- including volunteers in their late 80s and 90s -- the average trial participant was in his or her early 50s. The first people to be immunized in many places have been older than that as countries rush to inoculate nursing-home residents at high risk from the virus.

More Than 35 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

Norway has given at least one dose to about 33,000 people, focusing on those considered to be most at risk if they contract the virus, including the elderly. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine approved late last year has been used most broadly, with a similar shot from Moderna Inc. approved earlier this month also now being administered.

Of 29 cases of potential side effects investigated by Norwegian authorities, almost three-quarters were in people age 80 or older, the regulator said in a Jan. 14 report.

In France, one frail patient died in a care home two hours after being vaccinated, but authorities said given the patient’s previous medical history there is no indication the death was linked to the vaccine. The French pharmaceutical safety agency on Thursday reported four cases of severe allergic reactions and two incidents of irregular heartbeat after vaccination.

The first Europe-wide safety report on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine will probably be published at the end of January, the regulator’s key medicines committee said Friday. Vaccine makers are required to submit data monthly.

In the U.K., which has carried out more immunizations per capita than anywhere else in Europe, authorities will assess safety data and plan to publish details of suspected reactions “on a regular basis,” the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency said, without giving a date.
 

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#13
Authority figures clearly cannot be trusted
Why are they stopping the AstraZenica vaccine while claiming there is no elevated risk for DVT? that make absolutely zero sense


Considering how badly authorities have managed this pandemic in most western countries this is not actually surprising.

Case1
what they are saying is true (the DVT risk is lower in the vaccinated group) then they are needlessly stopping a vaccine that are not actually dangerous meaning authority figures cannot be trusted.

Even if it is the case that the DVT-risk is even lower among people who got other vaccines (possibly due to better protection against covid-19) it still doesn't make sense to just halt vaccinations during a severe shortage of vaccines.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91641

Case2
the vaccine is actually dangerous and they have good reasons to halt it but they are not telling us that, in that case authority figures cannot be trusted.
 

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#14
AstraZenica Vaccine trials
The following study did show it to be effective against covid-19 (very clearly) but what about actual outcomes that matter? (amount of severe reactions including death)?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

The first supplemental document didn't provide any useful information

thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32661-1/attachment/75bff1ea-804f-4c66-adc1-2f7d0f9b4550/mmc1.pdf

To get the actual outcomes i had to look at the second appendix

thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32661-1/attachment/75bff1ea-804f-4c66-adc1-2f7d0f9b4550/mmc1.pdf

1615890396826.png

1615890468519.png

It looks like the vaccinations is being halted for no good reason in many countries.

The only issue here is that there might be severe side effects excluded from analysis that did not favor the vaccine. blood clotting risk however isn't one of these since it was included in the analysis and it did favor the vaccine, unfortunatily the sample size wasn't that great.
 

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#16
Study: AstraZenica Vaccine ineffective against sourth african sars-cov-2
The study did some reduction in mild to moderate covid-19
Between June 24 and November 9, 2020, we enrolled 2026 HIV-negative adults (median age, 30 years); 1010 and 1011 participants received at least one dose of placebo or vaccine, respectively. Both the pseudovirus and the live-virus neutralization assays showed greater resistance to the B.1.351 variant in serum samples obtained from vaccine recipients than in samples from placebo recipients. In the primary end-point analysis, mild-to-moderate Covid-19 developed in 23 of 717 placebo recipients (3.2%) and in 19 of 750 vaccine recipients (2.5%), for an efficacy of 21.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], −49.9 to 59.8). Among the 42 participants with Covid-19, 39 cases (92.9%) were caused by the B.1.351 variant; vaccine efficacy against this variant, analyzed as a secondary end point, was 10.4% (95% CI, −76.8 to 54.8). The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the vaccine and placebo groups.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214?query=featured_home

This is the real issue with the AstraZenica vaccine and this poor protection will increase the risk of blood clotting and other adverse events over getting a vaccine that actually gives you proper protection.

It seems like the pfizer and moderna vaccine is also less effective in this case

https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(21)00136-0

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covi...an-variant-challenges-pfizer-moderna-vaccines
 
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