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There is currently massive amount of military hardware by many countries being approved for Ukraine. The United States, France, Germany, and many others are helping with getting tanks to the frontline.
Germany will be sending Leopard 2 tanks, the United Kingdom will be sending Challenger 2 tanks, and the United States is planning to send M1 Abrams tanks and the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. I may cover what these vehicles are capable of in a future article, but it is necessary that I research more about them first.
Ukraine has been requesting more advanced military equipment for a while. Previously western nations were a bit more reluctant, but recently massive strides have been made and they are supporting each other in sending new aid. The idea of sending fighter jets to Ukraine is even being discussed.
So what changed recently?
Russia’s Nuclear Weapons May Be Defunct
It is possible that Russia’s nuclear weapons may not actually be functioning. At the start of the invasion in February 24, the world was treading carefully because of the perceived threat of 5,000 nuclear weapons. Such a stockpile could end things for the United States and Europe extremely quickly. While Russia would also be obliterated in a full-on exchange, so would the United States and Europe.
However, as the invasion began to progress, it was clear that the United States and many western nations had overestimated Russia’s capabilities, significantly. The supposedly second best army in the world had planned to take Kyiv in 3 days, but months on they were gaining territory at a very slow pace, eventually not making any progress at all, then ceding territory.
Russia’s older tanks were supposed to receive upgrades to become modernized, but in reality these upgrades weren’t actually made. Generals and oligarchs simply pocketed the money and left the equipment to degrade. Firearms, ammunition, and clothing were also often found to be missing.
Like its army, Russia’s nuclear program is likely also falling apart. There are many reasons to believe this is the case, which I might discuss in further detail in another article. Put simply, nuclear weapons have decaying components like Tritium that must be constantly replaced. This is a much more massive undertaking than maintaining other aspects of the military. Since nuclear weapons were unlikely to ever be used, the nuclear program could be an easy way for oligarchs to pocket money. They could simply pretend the maintenance was done and then walk away.
Anyhow, the western nations may be realizing that the nuclear threat from Russia is illusory. They may have thus decided to up the ante and decide to go ahead with heavy tanks.
The Attritional Strategy
From early on, I’ve believed that the western nations may have chosen to engage in a slower, attritional strategy, rather than all out conflict. This would especially make sense if they did believe that Russia’s nuclear weapons still worked.
What the West may have believed at the onset of the invasion, is that immediately sending the best military hardware would escalate things too much, leading to all-out warfare quickly that could end up becoming nuclear war. However, if the aid were to trickle in slowly, Putin wouldn’t be able to start nuclear war without massive revolt from the people of Russia.
Thus, what NATO may have chosen as a strategy was to slowly up the amount of military aid to ensure that Ukraine wins in the long run, but not so much to the point where it would make the people of Russia support a nuclear engagement.
In an offensive in late 2022, Ukraine was able to retake a lot of territory, including Kherson. These types of victories weakened Russian morale and also made it easier to send further aid into Ukraine.
As Russia switched to missile attacks, the West quickly sent many air defense systems to protect Ukraine’s skies. These were very easy to justify to the public of many nations because air defense systems can be seen as a purely defensive system, protecting civilians from harm. But the reprieve from destruction also gave the Ukrainian people and the Armed Forces of Ukraine a better fighting chance.
It’s possible that sending tanks was simply the next logical step after sending air defense systems. And the next step after tanks may be fighter jets. The amount of tanks waiting to be sent is a small number, but with the advanced technology they have, they should be able to make an impact on the battlefield. It’s likely that the West will send these small amounts of tanks at first, then later back Ukraine with heavier amounts to help them take back more territory. After that it’s likely that the first jets will be approved.
A New Russian Offensive?
Russia’s partial mobilization began in September 2023, forcing over 300,000 men to join the military, though it’s possible that this number could be much higher, and that the mobilization isn’t so partial. Some of these men were already sent to enforce the front, often dying quickly and adding to rapidly increasing casualty numbers.
However, a large portion of these men remained in Russia to train for 3 months. That period is ending now and these men will be ready to be sent to the front. Russia may be planning a major offensive around the time of the anniversary for the war. Is it possible they may attack Kyiv again? We do not know for sure now but it is very likely that the Eastern Front will be significantly reinforced.
While the mobilized Russians face issues with poor training and equipment, sheer numbers shouldn’t be underestimated. The West may be upping it’s aid in military hardware now to ensure that Ukraine can hold territory when the new Russian offensive begins.
What Does It All Mean?
The war in Ukraine has been a long and brutal affair. It is likely that over 200,000 have died in total when taking into account the losses of both Ukraine and Russia. Much of Ukraine has now been contaminated with landmines. Ukrainians live without light, heating, and water. Grain harvests and exports have fallen, threatening the food security of the whole world.
Despite these tragic situations, I believe that the West will not allow Ukraine to lose. As an American, I wish that our support for Ukraine was much stronger, but I do not know the barriers and other issues that our leaders may face. What I do believe to be true though is that no matter what, the West will continue to increase it’s support for Ukraine until one day Ukraine achieves victory. We will continue to send financial aid, military aid, and offer support to Ukrainian refugees. I am deeply sorry that this aid has not come sooner or in high enough levels, but we will not stop helping until Ukraine wins, and the European Union and United States remain united in that goal.
A Ukrainian victory could likely happen in 2023. The losses are becoming too high for Russia, and each day that passes it makes less and less sense for them to continue the war. While they are weakening, Ukraine is only getting stronger and stronger. I look forward to the day that Ukraine pushes forward enough to take back Crimea.
In the meantime, I want to keep supporting Ukrainians in any way I can. Whether it’s teaching them English, sending donations for food, or helping people in America understand their plight through my writing.
Дуже дякую, слава Україні
