Vaccines

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#36
"everyone will get exposed to the virus"
Dr john Campbell made a video going over the shift in opinion from "Herd Immunity" to "everyone will get infected"


I do not think that is correct since as vaccinated get infected their immunity will improve so we might still get to Herd Immunity anyway.
 

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#37
Vaccinated vs unvaccinated (israel study)
Here is a study examining the outcomes of vaccinated vs unvaccinated (control) in israel.

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Adverse event here (like other studies) does not mean it was caused by covid or the vaccine but they did also estimate the contribution to these from the covid and the protection the pfizer vaccine offers:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475?query=featured_home#

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Issues with this study
This was not a randomized controlled trial so nothing was blinded, this may have lead to difference in reporting for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. The study did not specify how many of each adverse event that was linked to COVID-19 (unless i missed that in some appendix or something).

I also found no mortality data, this (unlike other outcomes) is far harder to fudge since it's generally very easy to tell whether or not someone is dead. Did they omit some bad data her or did they just not bother to study it?

Supplemental appendix

These studies have a habit of putting important data in a supplemental appendix for some reason, let's see if there is some valuable info there:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475/suppl_file/nejmoa2110475_appendix.pdf
 

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#38
Study: pfizer vaccine 42% effective against infection, moderna 76% effective
These figures just keep getting worse. So much for "herd immunity".

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

Clearly pushing so hard for vaccinations (like many countries did) was a great mistake, most vaccines are not particularly effective against protecting other people so it's hard to justify mandates or vaccine passports (especially when these vaccines are still to a large extent experimental).

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#39
Risk of thrombocytopenia and thromboembolism after covid-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 positive testing: self-controlled case series study
Both the AstraZenica and pfizer vaccine showed statistically significant benefits here but also some statistically significant negative health outcomes.

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1931



Anaphylaxis = severe, potentially life-threatening allergic reaction

CVST = cerebral venous sinus thrombosis

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/cerebral-venous-sinus-thrombosis

https://www.stroke.org/en/about-stroke/types-of-stroke/ischemic-stroke-clots
 

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#40
Studies on myocarditis risk
CDC did release a paper showing the myocarditis risk to be much lower than the number of hospitalizations prevented:

cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/06-COVID-Rosenblum-508.pdf

The following (not yet peer reviewed) study found a very different result

For boys 12-15 without medical comorbidities receiving their second mRNA vaccination dose, the rate of CAE is 3.7 to 6.1 times higher than their 120-day COVID-19 hospitalization risk as of August 21, 2021 (7-day hospitalizations 1.5/100k population) and 2.6-4.3-fold higher at times of high weekly hospitalization risk (7-day hospitalizations 2.1/100k), such as during January 2021
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1

One difference of course is that the CDC report looked at all males between 12 and 15 while this study specifically looked at males between 12 and 15 who was healthy. They did not however look at all adverse events:
Symptom search criteria included the words chest pain, myocarditis, pericarditis and myopericarditis to identify children with evidence of cardiac injury. The word troponin was a required element in the laboratory findings. Inclusion criteria were aligned with the CDC working case definition for probable myocarditis. Stratified cardiac adverse event (CAE) rates were reported for age, sex and vaccination dose number.
The following study did find that young males infected with the virus were 6 times more likely to get myocarditis than the ones who got vaccinated:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1
 

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#41
FDA only approves boosters for 65+ and people of high risk of severe covid
The reasoning for this seems to be that they view the vaccines are effective and therefore they cannot justify boosters for most people, they do not think it's needed. There also isn't much good data in favor of them.
The 16-2 vote against broad use of the booster, which would be given about six months after completion of the two-dose immunization regimen, dealt a setback to Pfizer and complicates the FDA's approach to boosters.

After a brief intermission following the rejection, FDA officials returned to the meeting with a revised booster question. The panel then voted 18-0 in support of the agency authorizing a booster shot of the vaccine for people 65 and older or at high risk of severe COVID-19.
npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/09/17/1038374005/experts-advising-fda-vote-against-pfizer-covid-booster?t=1632132335097
 

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#42
Surveillance for Adverse Events After COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination
This is another observational trial and like the other observational trials nothing was reported regarding mortality. Similar to the Isreali observational trial there were significantly fewer cases of appendicitis in the vaccinated group (only statistically significant benefit observed), this could possibly be due to covid-19 causing appendicitis and the vaccine protecting against that.

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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2784015
 

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#43
most people hospitalized/dead from covid are unvaccinated ≠ the vaccine is beneficial
This is often presented as a statistic in favor of covid vaccines but as you should be able to figure out this doesn't actually tell you that people benefit from taking the vaccine in terms of their healthy, you have to look at all adverse events, not just covin-associated adverse events. You also need to analyze each vaccine individually, even if one particular vaccine is beneficial people might still do better taking some other vaccine.

The first obvious issue is that this is not actually what matters. In order to show treatment to be beneficial you have to compare with untrated controls and look at all outcomes that matter, not just some of the outcomes.

The second issue is that there isn't even any clear line between "hospitalized with covid" and "hospitalized due to covid". What if someone has a mild case of covid-19 but then get an unrelated medical issue? in that case had they been vaccinated they would still end up in the hospital but it would not be a covid hospitilization.

This is why there is no alternative to doing proper trials and so far these have not really been done, sample size was way too small in the Randomized Controlled Trials (true for all covid vaccines) and the non-randomized trials isn't super-convincing either
 
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